Saturday, November 18, 2017

Oceans: Abstract Values vs. Measured Values - 2

Fig. 1 Getting closer
On the heels of yesterday's revelations about our WOD Datasets not matching the expected patterns of ocean temperature increases, I tasked myself with finding a properly balanced list of WOD zones that would more accurately reflect a balanced ocean temperature pattern.

The lower right pane of the graph at Fig. 1 shows an ocean water temperature increase of almost one degree C, which is more in line with the GISS Anomaly of one degree C, and the abstract Conservative Temperature (CT) increase of about one degree C in the upper right pane.

The problem that was solved is shown in the bottom left pane of Fig. 1, which is that using all measurements in all WOD Zones generated a false scenario for the years 1968 - 2016.

To find a proper balance, I resorted to Dredd Blog's past "layered approach" for selecting appropriate candidates for making up the list (The Layered Approach To Big Water, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).
Fig. 2 WOD Golden layers (5, 7-10, 12) ?

Layers are better suited for selecting ocean measurements because a layer goes all the way across the globe at a given latitude (Fig. 2).

This means there will be a better global concentration of measurements to work with.

Remember that scientists have to have funding to go out with sophisticated equipment to the middle zones of the oceans, far from land; or to go to many other difficult venues.

Thus, measurements for hard to get to areas tend to be less available for our use.

I am currently using the six layers shown in (Fig. 2) for accessing all of the in situ WOD temperature, salinity, and depth measurements that are being compared to the abstract calculations (Fig. 1).

These six layers will be the "Golden Layers" as I proceed with version 1.3 of the module.

That upgrade will include the abstract and measured Thermal Expansion analysis graphs (thermosteric volume & sea level change).

Previous ocean temperature, etc. graphs have used only the "Golden 23" ensemble of WOD Zones, which was originally grouped in order to solve some sea level change imbalances.

As it turns out, what is a balanced configuration for tide gauge stations is not necessarily a balanced configuration for deep ocean measurements.

The previous post in this series is here.

Friday, November 17, 2017

Oceans: Abstract Values vs. Measured Values

Fig. 1
Today I begin a new series.

In yesterday's post I noted that I had completed version 1.0 of a module that would generate abstract graphs (e.g. Fig. 1).

The purpose of the module is to generate graphs to show how things would look in a perfect mathematical world as compared to our current datasets of in situ measurements (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 27),

The reason for that exercise is to test our measurements of ocean temperatures, salinity, depths, and sea level changes against the backdrop of an informed simulation (e.g. Fig. 2).

The first test of the software was applied to the measurements of sea level changes compared to the measurements of surface temperatures (i.e. GISTEMP atmospheric temperature measurements since 1880).

The results shown in Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 turned out to be within the realm of what was to be reasonably expected (because absolute agreement is not expected between abstract and measured).
Fig. 3 The Problem

With those results in mind, I indicated that I would proceed to test the World Ocean Database (WOD) to see if the abstract and the measurements in the WOD would generate the same general results.

The results of version 1.1 of the module show that the WOD datasets have unbalanced measurements in either depths or latitude / longitude locations, or both (e.g. Fig. 3).

That is, the measurements are concentrated in locations or depths that are not a reasonable pattern-match in terms of what is to be expected according to the abstract projections.

The measurement data used to generate the lower two panes in Fig. 3 reflect two circumstances.

The first circumstance, shown in the lower left pane, details the ocean temperature measurements using all CTD and PFL measurements in all WOD Zones.

The second circumstance, shown in the lower right pane, details the ocean temperature measurements in only the "Golden 23" zones.

Both graphs in the lower panes show the water temperatures decreasing over the period 1968 - 2016, with the lower right pane showing an up-tick in temperatures over the last few years, but the lower left showing a decrease in temperatures over the same period.

That contrast in Fig. 3 is even more stark when compared to the upper panes that show generally and mathematically what should be happening.

This situation is what Dr. Mitrovica pointed out in the video below when the same problem plagued sea level science.

At one time tide gauge station measurements in Europe were confounding because they showed consistent sea level fall or a smaller increase when other places where showing more sea level rise.

It was called "the European problem" in the scientific literature because some scientists forgot about the law of gravity and Newton.

Professor Mitrovica goes on to point out that a scientist by the name of Bruce Douglas indicated that one has to pick and choose measurements from locations (and depths) which compose a balanced sample that shows actual global dynamics.

This is an elementary consideration, and is obviously true when one contemplates what would be shown if our measurements were taken only at the equator, or if our measurements were taken only at the poles.

So, with that in mind I chose as one sample the "Golden 23" WOD Zones, and as the second sample all WOD Zones.

As it turns out, those two test cases for ocean temperature measurements are at odds with what is taking place in the oceans as a whole; and so it turns out as shown in Fig. 3, that we have "a European problem" as it were.

So, we have to determine the best WOD Zones to use to reflect a closer pattern match to the abstract graphs.

Any suggestions?

Meanwhile, I will be completing the thermosteric volume logic in the module so we can print that out and show the contrast.

Thursday, November 16, 2017

On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 27

Fig. 1 Simulated vs. measured
I. PSMSL Update 

I recently updated the PSMSL database with data up to 13 November 2017 (PSMSL).

I combine the two (annual, monthly) downloads into one SQL table.

The result was a 9 mm drop in the global mean sea level average (GMSL) in terms of the "Golden 23" ... a group which is now composed of the original 23 tide gauge stations said to be a good representation of the state of sea level rise globally (see video below).

Fig. 2
Regular readers know that I use all stations located in the same WOD Zones as those original 23 stations.

As it turns out, those 23 stations are located in 15 WOD Zones, which contain 303 tide gauge stations.

Anyway, the graphic at Fig. 3 shows the areas that were updated, which explains why there was a drop (9 mm) in the GMSL, because sea level is falling in Patagonia (southern tip of S. America) and the N. European area (Proof of Concept - 5).

Fig. 3
The sea level around the world is in a constant state of change, so each time we update the PSMSL data those changes will be included.

The trend, however, has been the same for a century or so, with sea level falling around large concentrations of ice (Greenland, Antarctica, Glacier Bay Alaska, etc), but rising where the hinge point begins (The Evolution and Migration of Sea Level Hinge Points, 2; cf. video below).

In short, our observation of sea level change is based on our measurements, which are not always geographically balanced (The World According To Measurements, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

II. New Software Module

I have wanted to have an abstraction module to help show us how balanced those measurements are or are not.

I have just completed the 1.0 version.

The module-generated-graph at Fig. 1 shows a comparison with the latest PSMSL data and the abstract version.

The lower pane in that graph is from the recent PSMSL data, while the upper pane is the abstract version.

Let me explain what the abstract version does.

The WOD manual (Appendix 11.1, Appendix 11.2) contains the high and low temperatures and salinities to be expected at thirty-three (33) depths from 0 to 5,500 meters in 30 different ocean basins around the globe.

It covers the entire world ocean temperature, salinity, etc. from surface to bottom.

I put all of that information in SQL tables for quick access.

This allows me to generate a median value (high and low values added up at each depth, then divided by 2) for temperature, salinity, thermosteric volume (cu. km) and thermosteric sea level change (mm).

I then use the TEOS-10 toolkit for generating abstract CT, SA, and volume change calculations on each depth level, as I do with WOD in situ (measured) values in non-abstract operations (Golden 23 Zones Meet TEOS-10).

Then, since we also have (in an SQL table) the GISS global mean surface temperature changes (anomalies) since 1880 (Fig. 2, upper left pane), and since ~93% of that change in surface warming (that of the atmosphere) ends up in the ocean, it can be used as a guide to map out the abstract changes in those median ocean temperatures.

That pattern-map ends up being a background to compare with our in situ measurements to see if our measurements are too centralized, i.e. located in one area or another too heavily.

The upper right pane in Fig. 2 show that abstract pattern in TEOS Conservative Temperature (CT).

Once I have the CT, the Absolute Salinity (SA), the depth, the latitude, and the longitude, I can then calculate the thermosteric volume (thermal expansion & contraction) as well as sea level changes in the abstract (Fig. 2, lower panes).

Notice how closely the patterns in the four panes of Fig. 2 match.

III. Conclusion

One take away from this is that I think it confirms the selection of the "Golden 23" that Professor Mitrovica explained to us.

The graph lines in Fig. 1 show that the abstract pattern and the actual in situ measurements pattern are quite reasonably close.

Thus, our PSMSL measurements are turning out to be quite good.

In future posts of this series, or a new series, I want to analyze the WOD measurements with this new module to see if they are as good as the PSMSL measurements.

Remember, when I indicate "good" I mean the distribution of the measurements around the glove, not the quality of the science of the measurements.

Remember also that no matter how good (in terms of accuracy) any measurements are, they have to be distributed evenly enough (e.g. not all at the poles) in order to properly inform us of the global reality.

The previous post in this series is here.

Professor Jerry Mitrovica, Harvard University:

Sunday, November 12, 2017

The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan - 12

Alias Fruit Salad
This episode is about a not-a-so-called-judge (Judge Liddle Pistol) who everyone once knew was into dating high school girls bigly (Former Colleague, c.f. Everyone thought it was weird, GOP Rumors Too).

This observant Judge Liddle Pistol shot back that he always got their mother's permission to date them (The Week).

So, there is a movement to have Judge Liddle Pistol come over to the Whut? House for an interview by The Don for a job as Adoreme General to replace the current AG, The Who Doo.

In that serious Whut? House conference, The Banner Who Stayed intimated that "if these allegations prove to be true" we want Judge Liddle Pistol to replace The Who Doo
Whut? House Conference about Judge Liddle Pistol
because he would be a hands on general like the Mighty Quinn, Gen. Killy, Gen. Skin Head, or even the general Moochifer.

The Banner Who Left quipped that "we need a general who will put his hands on the Russia thingy and have his way with it rather than do like The Who Doo and nastily recuse himself before everyone."

Waiting for Judge Liddle Pistol
to come down from Alabama
The First Pence (a.k.a. Chief Yellow Pence'l) added, "we need a strong man who never worries about the smell test" (Once Upon A Time In The West - 2).

Meanwhile, The Don was excruciatingly happy to find everything in the odor he left it in when he returned from an art of the deal trip abroad.

On that trip The Don colluded bigly with "Rusher and Jaina" to persuade Liddle Short and Fat Rocket Man to stop calling The Don "old" (TMZ).
The Don has called just about everyone in the U.S. a liar, but believes Putin (see tweet to the left; click to enlarge).

He is preparing for the uproar that is building up due to his being "the greatest president of all time," or perhaps he is preparing for his next big deal to cut those burdensome federal taxes now placed on the billionaires like himself.
The Don can thereafter beat down some more unions and eradicate some more minimum wage laws now that he will have the hands on help of Judge Liddle Pistol (after first sending The Who Doo back to sweet home Alabama).

The previous post in this series is here.

Southern Man lyrics are here.

National anthem of Alabama lyrics are here.

Friday, November 10, 2017

Hypothesis: The Cultural Amygdala - 5

The Brain's Amygdala Pair
I. Some Background

This series began on the Toxins of Power Blog (Hypothesis: The Cultural Amygdala, 2, 3, 4).

But I can't write as much as I used to, so that blog and Ecocosmology Blog posts that once would have been placed on those blogs are now placed here on Dredd Blog.

The basic hypothesis of this series is that human culture (our social environment), including my culture, your culture, our culture, which is to say our society, our group, our family, and yes our social environment, contains functions that in principle and metaphorically have components resembling the functionality of our physical Amygdala in our physical brain.

Previous posts in this series have argued that our culture, our social environment, literally changes our brains physically.

This is supported by research going back some years:
Probably 98 percent of your reasoning is unconscious - what your brain is doing behind the scenes. Reason is inherently emotional. You can't even choose a goal, much less form a plan and carry it out, without a sense that it will satisfy you, not dis­gust you. Fear and anxiety will affect your plans and your ac­tions. You act differently, and plan differently, out of hope and joy than out of fear and anxiety.

Thought is physical. Learning requires a physical brain change: Receptors for neurotransmitters change at the synapses, which changes neural circuitry. Since thinking is the activation of such circuitry, somewhat different thinking re­quires a somewhat different brain. Brains change as you use them-even unconsciously. It's as if your car changed as you drove it, say from a stick shift gradually to an automatic.
(What Orwell Didn't Know, by Dr. G. Lakoff). That would, once upon a time in the past, have been incredulous to more people than it is now.

As I will show, recent revolutionary scientific discoveries concerning neuron cells in the brain confirm with solid physical evidence that this is the rule of brain genetics, brain epigenetics, and normal brain growth, all of which support and confirm The Cultural Amygdala hypothesis.

II. Some New Scientific Discoveries

With that in mind, here are some quotes (from the November, 2017 issue of The Scientist) for your perusal:
"Beyond such internal mechanisms of variation, environment-driven plasticity lends yet another layer of complexity to the brain. The brain is capable of remarkable remodeling in response to experience. Signals originating from the environment can cause both widespread and localized adaptations. At the level of individual cells, structure and function are continually changing with the environment in a dance of lifelong brain plasticity, and some experiences, such as stress or physical exercise, affect the growth, survival, and fate of newborn neurons in neurogenic regions of the brain.
Traditionally, cells are defined by the tissue to which they belong as well as their particular functional role or morphology. This classification represents a developmental trajectory that begins early in embryogenesis and is hardwired into each cell. But other differences among cells are more subtle. Multi-dimensional analyses of gene expression and other metrics have revealed remarkable heterogeneity among cells of the same traditional “type.” Cells exist in different degrees of maturation, activation,plasticity, and morphology. Once we begin to consider all of the subtle cell-to-cell variations, it becomes clear that the number of cell types is much greater than ever imagined. In fact, it may be more appropriate to place some cells along a continuum rather than into categories at all.
Brain cells in particular may be as unique as the people to which they belong. This genetic, molecular, and morphological diversity of the brain leads to functional variation that is likely necessary for the higher-order cognitive processes that are unique to humans. Such mosaicism may have a dark side, however. Although neuronal diversification is normal, it is possible that there is an optimal extent of diversity for brain function and that anything outside those bounds—too low or too high—may be pathological. For example, if neurons fail to function optimally in their particular role or environment, deficits could arise. Similarly, if neurons diversify and become too specialized to a given role, they may lose the plasticity required to change and function normally within a larger circuit. As researchers continue to probe the enormous complexity of the brain at the single-cell level, they will likely begin to uncover the answers to these questions—as well as those we haven’t even thought to ask yet."
(Advancing Techniques Reveal the Brain’s Impressive Diversity, emphasis added). Our human brains are constantly being physically molded and modified by the external cultural environment around us.

While we are at it, let's not forget, that our conscious and unconscious resistances and concurrences to those cultural influences can protect us or harm us accordingly.

III. The Historical Fingerprints Supporting
These Brain-Science Discoveries
Should Also Be Part of The Subject Matter

There are a couple of historical studies of civilizations and cognitive activity that mirror the evidence presented in the The Scientist article quoted above.

As to the impact of these dynamics on past civilizations, notice:
"In the Study Toynbee examined the rise and fall of 26 civilizations in the course of human history, and he concluded that they rose by responding successfully to challenges under the leadership of creative minorities composed of elite leaders. Civilizations declined when their leaders stopped responding creatively, and the civilizations then sank owing to the sins of nationalism, militarism, and the tyranny of a despotic minority. Unlike Spengler in his The Decline of the West, Toynbee did not regard the death of a civilization as inevitable, for it may or may not continue to respond to successive challenges. Unlike Karl Marx, he saw history as shaped by spiritual, not economic forces" ...
(Encyclopedia Britannica, emphasis added). This ties in with the quote from The Scientist article (in Section II above), which pointed out that these brain changes can be problematic:
Such mosaicism may have a dark side, however. Although neuronal diversification is normal, it is possible that there is an optimal extent of diversity for brain function and that anything outside those bounds—too low or too high—may be pathological.
(ibid). It is our personal, our group, and our cultural responses that render the changes progressively sane or progressively insane (About Toxins Of Power).

As to the fingerprints of psychological dynamics, the "father of psychoanalysis" recognized the need to keep an eye on groups because they can and do go crazy (even if they are not as large as a civilization):
"If the evolution of civilization has such a far reaching similarity with the development of an individual, and if the same methods are employed in both, would not the diagnosis be justified that many systems of civilization——or epochs of it——possibly even the whole of humanity——have become neurotic under the pressure of the civilizing trends? To analytic dissection of these neuroses, therapeutic recommendations might follow which could claim a great practical interest. I would not say that such an attempt to apply psychoanalysis to civilized society would be fanciful or doomed to fruitlessness. But it behooves us to be very careful, not to forget that after all we are dealing only with analogies, and that it is dangerous, not only with men but also with concepts, to drag them out of the region where they originated and have matured. The diagnosis of collective neuroses, moreover, will be confronted by a special difficulty. In the neurosis of an individual we can use as a starting point the contrast presented to us between the patient and his environment which we assume to be normal. No such background as this would be available for any society similarly affected; it would have to be supplied in some other way. And with regard to any therapeutic application of our knowledge, what would be the use of the most acute analysis of social neuroses, since no one possesses power to compel the community to adopt the therapy? In spite of all these difficulties, we may expect that one day someone will venture upon this research into the pathology of civilized communities." [p. 39]
"Men have brought their powers of subduing the forces of nature
to such a pitch that by using them they could now very easily exterminate one another to the last man. They know this——hence arises a great part of their current unrest, their dejection, their mood of apprehension." [p. 40]"
(Civilization and Its Discontents, S. Freud, 1929, emphasis added). The fingerprints of the toxins of power have been placed where they can be detected and analyzed all along the way of the history of human civilizations.

IV. Conclusion

Our struggles today are the same ones that those who came before us faced but failed to master, in terms of remedies at the group level.

We have come to the place Freud described long ago (and many observers today also have described) which goes something like this:
"Men have brought their powers of subduing the forces of nature
to such a pitch that by using them they could now very easily exterminate one another to the last man."
(Freud quote @ Section III above). These fingerprints of history were known to those who formed the embryo of the U.S. government as they attempted to spread power thin among three branches of government (Executive, Legislative, and Judicial).

For example, the author of the Bill of Rights who was the 4th President, was a Cabinet Member, and was a congressman, warned against one of these "sins of nationalism, militarism, and the tyranny of a despotic minority" (Section III above).

He warned against the "most to be dreaded," which he knew had brought down previous civilizations, and would bring down our own:
Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded, because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes; and armies, and debts, and taxes are the known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few. In war, too, the discretionary power of the Executive is extended; its influence in dealing out offices, honors, and emoluments is multiplied: and all the means of seducing the minds, are added to those of subduing the force, of the people. The same malignant aspect in republicanism may be traced in the inequality of fortunes, and the opportunities of fraud, growing out of a state of war, and in the degeneracy of manners and of morals, engendered by both. No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare. Those truths are well established.
(James Madison, emphasis added). Since the military is the most trusted group (over 70%) in the U.S. (congress 9%, etc.), it does not look like our brains are growing sane, even though they are growing (The Skulls They Are A Changin').

Growing just to get bigger, in many cases (e.g. economy, population) is not always wise.

The previous post in this series is here.

The brains they are a changin' ...

Wednesday, November 8, 2017

The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan - 11

Leaders of Bullshitistan at work on Infrastructure
I. Prelude

Bullshitistan invaded the U.S.A. by way of a criminal conspiracy (e.g. Dept. of Justice Conspiracy Theories - 2).

Those invaders, as moles, thereby installed Russian type ideologues in the Whut? House (The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10).

In addition to that, those moles have infested federal agencies with more Russian type ideologues.

This was conducted as a way of ransacking the nation (e.g Health Secretary Price resigns amid scandal).

The nation is now the opposite of what it once was in terms of global warming induced climate change, according to those moles (Paris climate accord: Syria to sign up, isolating US, Scott Pruitt: EPA Will Continue to Roll Back Regulations Despite Climate Report).

Thus, the whole world is now beginning to see the nation as a pariah, which could be devastating in many more ways than one (First Shots Fired In The Currency Wars - 2).

II. The Insurrection Begins

One of the main weaknesses of The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan is that they fall for their own bullshit on critical matters (Choose Your Trances Carefully, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

For example, one of their most crippling trances is that they think that the general populace believes them, and are convinced that the fake administration of The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan is for real.

Last night's election results will not shake them out of their trance about that, but the American counter insurgency will send them back to Bullshitistan for good, and thereby "make America great once again."

III. Messages For The Clueless

From the moderator of Meet the Press:
Election Day 2017 is not complicated when you look at the results nationwide. This was about the political environment created by Donald Trump, pure and simple. Trump and Trumpism was not a winning strategy.
(Chuck Todd). The analysis of the election will continue for days and weeks, but the writing is on the wall:
A civil rights attorney who delights in suing the police is the new district attorney in Philadelphia. A democratic socialist shocked an incumbent Republican in Virginia. A black woman who prosecuted a white cop for shooting a black teen was re-elected as prosecutor. Three months after Charlottesville, a black lieutenant governor was elected in Virginia. A trans woman who focused on traffic problems knocked out a longtime culture warrior who focused on bathrooms. A criminal justice reformer flipped the Washington state Senate to Democrats. A wet bag of mulch beat a race-baiting lobbyist in Virginia by a stunning nine points. Maine voters expanded Medicaid. Long-held Republican seats in Georgia flipped in a special election. New Jersey, finished with Chris Christie, elected a Democrat in a landslide.

Facing what looked to pundits as an insurmountable 32-seat gap, Democrats are on the brink of taking back the Virginia House of Delegates, a result that now comes down to recounts.

In special elections since last November, Democrats have dramatically outperformed at the polls, though Republicans have dismissed each flipped seat as a one-off, no evidence of a pattern. Tuesday will be much harder to write off.
(The Intercept). Keep up the good work American voters.

IV. Conclusion

Americans do not like authoritarian "mental cases" in their government (The Authoritarianism of Climate Change, 2).

They will be busy eradicating The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan in upcoming elections.

Stay tuned-in, and keep voting them out.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Lyrics to the following song available here:

Tuesday, November 7, 2017

First Shots Fired In The Currency Wars - 2

"Truth is never the fault of the messenger." - Dredd
This series, which began in 2009, is about a little-watched, but incessantly developing,  situation in international monetary dynamics.

One that threatens the economy of the United States.

National debt and taxes are watched closely because they can impact individuals.

The subject of this series is more dangerous than those issues, because it encompasses them and many others.

The subject I am talking about is the "petrodollar."

 Here is a brief historical look at the issue:
"After the collapse of the Bretton Woods gold standard in the early 1970s, the U.S. struck a deal with Saudi Arabia to standardize oil prices in dollar terms. Through this deal, the petrodollar system was born, along with a paradigm shift away from pegged exchanged rates and gold-backed currencies to non-backed, floating rate regimes.

The petrodollar system elevated the U.S. dollar to the world's reserve currency and through this status, the U.S. is able to enjoy persistent trade deficits, and become a global economic hegemony. The petrodollar system also provides the United States’ financial markets with a source of liquidity and foreign capital inflows through petrodollar "recycling."
Faced with mounting inflation, debt from the Vietnam War, profligate domestic spending habits and a persistent balance of payments deficit , the Nixon administration decided to suddenly (and shockingly) end the convertibility of U.S. dollar into gold. In the wake of this “Nixon Shock,” the world saw the end of the gold era and a free fall of the U.S. dollar amidst soaring inflation. According to, Dr. Bessma Moomani in the article, " GCC Oil Exporters and the Future of the Dollar," through a series of carefully crafted bilateral agreements with Saudi Arabia beginning in 1974, the U.S. was able to promote bilateral political and commercial relations, market imported U.S. goods and services, and help recycle Saudi petrodollars ...

Through this framework of economic cooperation, and more importantly, petrodollar recycling, the U.S. managed to influence Saudi Arabia to persuade the other members of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to standardize the sale of oil in dollars. In return for invoicing oil in dollar denominations, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states were able to secure U.S. influence in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, along with U.S. military assistance amidst an increasingly worrisome political climate that saw the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, the fall of the Iranian Shah and the Iran-Iraq War. Out of this mutually beneficial agreement, the petrodollar system was born.
Since the most sought after commodity in the world--oil--is priced in U.S. dollars, the petrodollar ... elevated the greenback as the world's dominant currency. In fact, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) triennial survey, 87 percent of all foreign exchanges deals initiated in April 2013, involved the USD on one side. With this status, the U.S. dollar was able to enjoy, what some have asserted to be an "exorbitant privilege" of perpetually financing its current account deficit by issuing dollar denominated assets at very low rates of interest, as well as, becoming a global economic hegemony."
(How Petrodollars Affect The U.S. Dollar, emphasis added). Naturally the competitors and some of the "enemies" of the U.S.A. were not comfortable with this situation which they saw as a disadvantage to them.

Dredd Blog has been concerned about the other side of this coin, which is of course a potential vulnerability (First Shots Fired In The Currency Wars, see also Economic War Of The Pacific - 3, Economic War Of The Pacific - 6).

Recently, we have seen "adjustments" in our relationship with the nation of Saudi Arabia (an original petrodollar player), and in its own traditional way of governing (Congress overrides Obama's veto of 9/11 bill letting families sue Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia Arrests 11 Princes, Including Billionaire Alwaleed bin Talal).

In addition to that, increasing attacks are being made on the petrodollar by China, Russia, and other countries:
China will "compel" Saudi Arabia to trade oil in yuan and, when this happens, the rest of the oil market will follow suit and abandon the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency, a leading economist told CNBC on Monday.

Carl Weinberg, chief economist and managing director at High Frequency Economics, said Beijing stands to become the most dominant global player in oil demand since China usurped the U.S. as the "biggest oil importer on the planet."

Saudi Arabia has "to pay attention to this because even as much as one or two years from now, Chinese demand will dwarf U.S. demand," Weinberg said.

"I believe that yuan pricing of oil is coming and as soon as the Saudis move to accept it — as the Chinese will compel them to do — then the rest of the oil market will move along with them."
(China will 'compel' Saudi Arabia to trade oil in yuan — and that's going to affect the US dollar). Other nations have increasingly joined the bandwagon (e.g. Russia, Iran, Venezuela).

Some economists and petrodollar observers are preparing for what they see as the inevitable, and so are the warmongers:
"So… What Would Happen If The Petrodollar System Ended Tomorrow

Allow me to briefly explain the impact that a sudden loss of the petrodollar system would have upon the United States of America.

  • Foreign nations would begin sending a flood of U.S. dollars back to the United States in exchange for the new currency needed for oil.
  • The Federal Reserve would lose their ability to print more dollars to solve America’s economic problems.
  • The Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve Chairman would meet to determine the best course of action.
  • That action would involve an immediate and dramatic increase in interest rates to reduce America’s money supply.
  • Hyperinflation would ensue temporarily while the interest rates took time to take full effect.
  • All oil-related prices, including gas prices, would reach outrageous levels.
  • Washington would soon realize that the total amount of money in the system would have to be dramatically slashed even further, leading to an even higher increase in interest rates.
  • The clueless American public would demand answers. Those on the left would blame the right. The right would blame the left. And both political parties would seek to blame the Federal Reserve.
  • People with adjustable rate debts would be crushed and massive layoffs would occur as businesses suffered from the high interest rates.
  • Asset prices across the board would plummet in value.
  • Amid the financial carnage, an economic recovery eventually would begin to take place. But this new American economy would be tremendously smaller due to a drastically reduced money supply.
This brief scenario is far from exhaustive and is probably very incomplete. But I provide it to help you understand the great economic damage that you and I, and our nation in general, would sustain if the petrodollar system were to collapse suddenly.

The Washington elites are intimately aware of how serious the economic situation could become if the petrodollar system collapsed. After all, they were the architects and masterminds of the entire system. And if one considers Washington’s policies since the mid-1970’s, it is evident that they have no intention of allowing the petrodollar system to fail.
(Follow The Money, emphasis added). That means war (Is War An Art or Is War A Disease?, 2, 3; War is the Highway 61 of the 1%).

Here are some other related articles (CNBC, The Peak Of The Oil Wars - 12, Iran says ditch the petrodollar, Economics of Petrodollars, Definition of Petrodollars,
Preparing for the Collapse of the Petrodollar System).

So, buckle-up and hunker-down, because the current U.S. government is isolating the U.S. from the rest of the world in many ways.

That error plays into the hands of those seeking to take the petrodollar to new places (As Syria embraces Paris climate deal, it’s the United States against the world).

The previous post in this series is here.

Saturday, November 4, 2017

Government Climate Change Report - 11

It's the law
This series concerns legislation passed by congress and signed into law by Bush I in 1990.

This series began almost half a decade ago (Government Climate Change Report, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10); the latest report engendered by this American law was just released.

So, between the lines below is the Executive Summary of that report:

"Highlights of the U.S. Global Change Research Program
Climate Science Special Report

The climate of the United States is strongly connected to the changing global climate. The statements below highlight past, current, and projected climate changes for the United States and the globe.

Global annually averaged surface air temperature has increased by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) over the last 115 years (1901–2016). This period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization. The last few years have also seen record-breaking, climate-related weather extremes, and the last three years have been the warmest years on record for the globe. These trends are expected to continue over climate timescales.

This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.

In addition to warming, many other aspects of global climate are changing, primarily in response to human activities. Thousands of studies conducted by researchers around the world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; diminishing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea levels; ocean acidification; and increasing atmospheric water vapor.

For example, global average sea level has risen by about 7–8 inches since 1900, with almost half(about 3 inches) of that rise occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to this rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Global sea level rise has already affected the United States; the incidence of daily tidal flooding is accelerating in more than 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities.

Global average sea levels are expected to continue to rise—by at least several inches in the next 15 years and by 1–4 feet by 2100. A rise of as much as 8 feet by 2100 cannot be ruled out. Sea level rise will be higher than the global average on the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States.

Changes in the characteristics of extreme events are particularly important for human safety, infrastructure, agriculture, water quality and quantity, and natural ecosystems. Heavy rainfall is increasing in intensity and frequency across the United States and globally and is expected to continue to increase. The largest observed changes in the United States have occurred in the Northeast.

Heat waves have become more frequent in the United States since the 1960s, while extreme cold temperatures and cold waves are less frequent. Recent record-setting hot years are projected to be-come common in the near future for the United States, as annual average temperatures continue to rise. Annual average temperature over the contiguous United States has increased by 1.8°F (1.0°C) for the period 1901–2016; over the next few decades (2021–2050), annual average temperatures are expected to rise by about 2.5°F for the United States, relative to the recent past (average from 1976–2005), under all plausible future climate scenarios.

The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate changes, with profound changes to regional ecosystems.

Annual trends toward earlier spring melt and reduced snow pack are already affecting water re-sources in the western United States and these trends are expected to continue. Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydro-logical drought is increasingly possible before the end of this century.

The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse gases (especially carbon dioxide) emitted globally. Without major reductions in emissions, the increase in annual average global temperature relative to preindustrial times could reach 9°F (5°C) or more by the end of this century. With significant reductions in emissions, the increase in annual average global temperature could be limited to 3.6°F (2°C) or less.

The global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has now passed 400 parts per million (ppm), a level that last occurred about 3 million years ago, when both global average temperature and sea level were significantly higher than today. Continued growth in CO2 emissions over this century and beyond would lead to an atmospheric concentration not experienced in tens to hundreds of millions of years. There is broad consensus that the further and the faster the Earth system is pushed towards warming, the greater the risk of unanticipated changes and impacts, some of which are potentially large and irreversible.

The observed increase in carbon emissions over the past 15–20 years has been consistent with higher emissions pathways. In 2014 and 2015, emission growth rates slowed as economic growth became less carbon-intensive. Even if this slowing trend continues, however, it is not yet at a rate that would limit global average temperature change to well below 3.6°F (2°C) above preindustrial levels."

(USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, emphasis added).

Lyrics to the song in this video can be viewed here.

The previous post in this series is here.

Friday, November 3, 2017

Trapped Heat Is Like Trapped Animals (Somewhat Unpredictable)

Fig. 1 What comes in must equal what goes out (or else)
The peer reviewed paper which came out recently indicated that it was highly unlikely that a 2 degree C increase in average global surface temperature (atmospheric) could be achieved (Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely).

That is scary because, for one thing, another group wrote that a 2 deg. C increase in global mean average temperature was "highly dangerous" (New Study Says Even 2 Degrees of Warming 'Highly Dangerous').

The way this happens is that the planet's heat budget is unbalanced by greenhouse gases being injected into the atmosphere by a civilization that is recklessly using fossil fuels at an increasing rate; a rate that is keeping more and more of the Sun's heat trapped in the Earth's atmosphere and oceans (Fig. 1 oversimplified & not to scale).

Fig. 2a Ocean temperatures @ 7 depth layers
Fig. 2b Average Conservative Temperature
The bulk of this heat that is trapped here because it cannot flow back out into space, eventually enters the oceans (~93% ends up in the oceans).

The graph at Fig. 2a shows past, present, and future temperature changes in the oceans at seven depth layers.

The graph at Fig. 2b shows only the mean average of those temperature changes.

Notice how the same mean average values look quite different when graphed en masse (Fig. 2a) compared to being graphed alone (Fig. 2b).

That is something to keep in mind when viewing the same values being presented in different configurations that make them look different.

Fig. 3a Absolute Salinity @ 7 depth layers
Fig. 3b Mean average Absolute Salinity
The graphs at Fig. 3a and Fig. 3b present the same graph phenomenon while graphing Absolute Salinity in the same manner as Conservative Temperature is graphed in Fig. 2a and Fig. 2b.

Ocean salinity can be changed in several ways, such as by freshening (fresh melt water from ice sheets, ice shelves, and glaciers entering the ocean), currents, changes in temperature, and upwelling, to name a few.

The way to view the two presentations is to note the high and low shown at the left side of the graph.

For example, the mean average temperature begins at about 5.5 deg. C on both Fig. 2a and Fig. 2b, and stays within the 5.0 - 5.9 degree range as its temperature oscillates up and down by cooling and warming.

Nevertheless, that less than one degree of oscillation looks radical on Fig. 2b while looking quite tame on graph Fig. 2a.

Fig. 4a Thermal Expansion @ 7 depth layers
Fig. 4b Mean average Thermal Expansion
The same goes for the graphs of Thermal Expansion in graphs at Fig. 4a and Fig. 4b.

All of these graphs cover the years 1880 through 2100.

Actual in situ valid data contained in the WOD database (@ datasets CTD and PFL) only exists for the years 1968 - 2016.

So, the pre-1968 and post-2016 values are calculated using GISS temperature records from 1880 through 2016, then projected out to 2100 using the recent peer reviewed paper mentioned earlier (New Study Says Even 2 Degrees of Warming 'Highly Dangerous').

The scientists who produced the paper estimate a bit less that a 5 degree C temperature increase as the high end temperature likely to exist on Earth by the year 2100.

Fig. 5 GISS temperatures
I use their estimates to project the future ocean temperature by taking ~93 % of those values for computing temperature changes entering the oceans over that span of time (Fig. 5).

The past (pre-1968) is projected in the same manner, combined with PSMSL and WOD in situ measurements as a guide.

You may notice that some of the in situ WOD measurements are more volatile than the other measured values (PSMSL & GISS) during the about half a century of in place measurements we have.

We live in more volatile times now, which makes it difficult to guesstimate both the past (less radical) and the future (more radical), but remember that we are at a 1 deg C GISS anomaly now, and they project it to increase to about a 5 degree anomaly.

That is quite radical too.

The in situ measurements from 1880 - 2016 exist for PSMSL and GISS, meaning the projections are only future computations, but since the WOD measurements are not that robust, pre-1968 and post-2016 must be estimated by being informed by the other measurements.

At the end of the day, it is the trend line that will be the most accurate indicator.

Wednesday, November 1, 2017

Trumpeting While Straining Out A Gnat

It's too late to call this 'the future'
Another lunatic kills a few people with a rented truck while those who see themselves as "the shiny city on the hill" (a dog-whistle code for "the epigovernment") are killing millions every year with their 'financially sacred' pollution:
"For decades, pollution and its harmful effects on people's health, the environment, and the planet have been neglected both by governments and the international development community. Pollution is the largest environmental cause of disease and death in the world today, responsible for an estimated 9 million premature deaths in 2015.1 92% of all pollution-related mortality is seen in low-income and middle-income countries. A new Lancet Commission on pollution and health aims to confront and overturn this urgent predicament."
(The Lancet, cf. Washington Post). To the survivors of the pollution, the members of the Oil-Qaeda wing of the MOMCOM wing of the Epigovernment declare "what does not kill you makes you stronger."

That is taking place as the mass-murder media ("if it bleeds it leads") decreases their coverage of such "statistics" ("One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic").

Yes, nine million deaths a year reporting decreased by sixty-five percent (Media Matters Report Shows Stunning Lack of Climate Change Coverage on TV Networks in 2016).

The media presstitutes of the epigovernment like to major in the minors, to focus on the minor number of deaths by terrorists, while not reporting on the major number of deaths by government sanctioned pollution:
  • You are 35,079 times more likely to die from heart disease than from a terrorist
  • You are 33,842 times more likely to die from cancer than from a terrorist
  • obesity is 5,882 to 23,528 times more likely to kill you than a terrorist
  • you are 5,882 times more likely to die from medical error than terrorism
  • you’re 4,706 times more likely to drink yourself to death than die from terrorism
  • you are 1,904 times more likely to die from a car accident than from a terrorist
  • your meds are thousands of times more likely to kill you than Al Qaeda
  • you’re 2,059 times more likely to kill yourself than die at the hand of a terrorist
  • you’re 452 times more likely to die from risky sexual behavior than terrorism
  • you’re 353 times more likely to fall to your death ... than die in a terrorist attack
  • you are 271 times more likely to die from a workplace accident than terrorism
  • you are 187 times more likely to starve to death in America than be killed by terrorism
  • you’re about 22 times more likely to die from a brain-eating zombie parasite than a terrorist
  • you were more than 9 times more likely to be killed by a law enforcement officer than by a terrorist
  • [being] “crushed to death by ... [TV] or furniture” [as likely as] being killed by terrorist
  • Americans are 110 times more likely to die from contaminated food than terrorism
  • you are more likely to be killed by a toddler than a terrorist
  • you [are] four times more likely to be struck by lightning than killed by a terrorist
(Terrorism We Can Believe In? - 3). Yep, the errorists covering the terrorists is the essence of McTell News in these circumstances (Blind Willie McTell News, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

"Now the rovin’ gambler he was very bored
He was tryin’ to create a next world war
He found a promoter who nearly fell off the floor
He said I never engaged in this kind of thing before
But yes I think it can be very easily done
We’ll just put some bleachers out in the sun
And have it on Highway 61" - Dylan

Monday, October 30, 2017

Dept. of Justice Conspiracy Theories - 2

Over a half a decade ago I pointed out one bad habit of the mass media (Dept. of Justice Conspiracy Theories).

The McTell News (Blind Willie McTell News, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) has an aversion to "conspiracy theory" (On The Origin of "Conspiracy Theory", 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7).

One reason for that aversion is that some of the media who were CIA agents or assets wanted "conspiracy theory" to be relegated to the realm of evil thoughts (Mocking America, 2, 3, 4).

Instead, the McTell News like to make things up, like "collusion," their doublespeak word for the proper word "conspiracy."

Thus, they have. for months and months now, echoed daily the word "collusion" (which cannot be found in the criminal laws of the United States).

They have been caught in their own tongue twisting machinations.

The proper word is not "collusion," rather it is "conspiracy," as clearly shown in the criminal laws of The United States of America:
"If two or more persons conspire either to commit any offense against the United States, or to defraud the United States, or any agency thereof in any manner or for any purpose, and one or more of such persons do any act to effect the object of the conspiracy, each shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than five years, or both."
(i8 USC § 371, emphasis added, cf DOJ on conspiracy theory). This is a general conspiracy statute ("If two or more persons conspire ... to commit any offense against the United States ... in any manner or for any purpose").

II. Trump Campaign Criminal Conspirators

Today, a Trump Campaign manager and his deputy were indicted on twelve felony counts (Federal grand jury indictment against Manafort, Gates).

The first two of the twelve counts in the indictment were for CONSPIRACY  (not "collusion").

Count One was the crime of CONSPIRACY AGAINST THE UNITED STATES, a felony (i8 USC § 371).

When McTell News reads the indictment will they supplant the word conspiracy with their made up idea-word collusion?

McTell News should give up their bad habit.

III. Guilty

Another Trump advisor has also been indicted and pled guilty:
A professor with close ties to the Russian government told an adviser to Donald J. Trump’s presidential campaign in April 2016 that Moscow had “dirt” on Hillary Clinton in the form of “thousands of emails,” according to court documents unsealed Monday.

The adviser, George Papadopoulos, has pleaded guilty to lying to the F.B.I. about that conversation. The plea represents the most explicit evidence connecting the Trump campaign to the Russian government’s meddling in last year’s election.

“They have dirt on her,” the professor told him, according to the documents. “They have thousands of emails.”
(Trump Campaign Adviser Met With Russian to Discuss ‘Dirt’ on Clinton). Today on Morning Joe, the following was stated: "Seventy-Five percent of the Republicans polled said it was ok that Russia interfered with the 2016 presidential election."

IV. Collusion vs. Conspiracy

The difference between "collusion" and "conspiracy" is that "collusion" is not a criminal law concept found in the text of American law:
"Let's agree, for now, that "collusion" is a political word, a media word, a polite word countless hacks have settled on because its use allows everyone to cover this catastrophe without having to actually accuse the president and his tribunes of something that sounds like a crime. "No one here engaged in a conspiracy" sounds an awful lot like: "I swear I never touched her, officer," while the phrase "There is no collusion here" sounds an awful lot like a phrase from a science book that the Secretary of Education soon will be asking school officials around the country to burn." - Esquire Magazine
"The word collusion, in a legal context, also has a financial connotation.  Its main use is in bankruptcy, divorce, or other cases concerning money.  Trump Jr.’s interaction with Russian lawyer Veselnitskaya was first concerned with political information, and later adoption.  The political information may have been of value, but it would have been of political value, not monetary value.  The consequences of collusion usually do not have a jail sentence, but rather, a fine may be assessed against the violating parties.  Despite headlines questioning the meeting and its legal impact, the Trump campaign’s actions likely do not constitute collusion.

While the meeting may not constitute collusion, it may constitute conspiracy.  Conspiracy is defined as 'an agreement between two or more parties to commit, through their joint efforts, a crime or an innocent act that becomes unlawful due to the concerted efforts of the parties.' ” 
- Campbell Law Observer
"A criminal conspiracy exists when two or more people agree to commit almost any unlawful act, then take some action toward its completion. The action taken need not itself be a crime, but it must indicate that those involved in the conspiracy knew of the plan and intended to break the law. One person may be charged with and convicted of both conspiracy and the underlying crime based on the same circumstances.

For example, Andy, Dan, and Alice plan a bank robbery. They 1) visit the bank first to assess security, 2) pool their money and buy a gun together, and 3) write a demand letter. All three can be charged with conspiracy to commit robbery, regardless of whether the robbery itself is actually attempted or completed." - Findlaw
(emphasis added). Just ask yourself the question "why did congress use the word 'conspiracy' rather than the word 'collusion' in the federal criminal law?"

The mass media is helping criminal conspirators (e.g. confusing future jurors) by misusing the concept of "collusion," which is a word that is not found in the text of criminal law.

In order to water down and in effect replace the text of the valid criminal law word "conspiracy," they have painted themselves into a dishonest corner as they do when they do not mention climate change, and historically did not mention Jim Crow laws as they should have (Blind Willie McTell News).

V. Conclusion

As Expected
Fox mass media news, and other McTell News outlets, can now, (along with the Whut? House), tell the truth and say "see, we told you there was no collusion for which there will be any criminal prosecution."

The previous post in this series is here.